Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
