Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
